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February 2026 GTA Housing Market
- February sales of 3,868 units were down 6.3% versus February 2025 and 39.3% below the 10-year average for the month.
- New listings fell faster than sales (down 17.7% versus 6.3%), resulting in tighter market conditions than a year ago.
- There is substantial pent-up demand, with more than 100,000 buyers holding off on a purchase while they wait for prices to level off and for positive news on trade.
- The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark declined 7.9% year over year, while the average selling price was down 7.1% to $1,008,968.
Market Highlights
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resale home sales | 4,127 | 3,868 | -6.3% |
| Average resale price | $1,086,586 | $1,008,968 | -7.1% |
| New listings | 13,004 | 10,705 | -17.7% |
Canada’s 2026 Mortgage Renewal Wave: Manageable, Not a Meltdown
After the first wave of pandemic-era renewals in 2025, an even larger group of borrowers will reset in 2026 as five-year terms signed during the 2020-21 low-rate boom mature.
When the Bank of Canada raised rates aggressively in 2022-23, the policy rate peaked at 5%, its highest level in 22 years, and fears grew of severe payment shock at renewal. The picture has since improved. Through 2024 and 2025 the Bank delivered nine rate cuts, more than halving its benchmark rate before pausing.
Economists now describe renewal shock as “meaningful but manageable.” Major banks suggest most households will adjust, though with less financial flexibility. The likely result is pressure on spending, but no systemic crisis.
Thinking of buying, selling or investing in the GTA? Contact Sergei Mendelev, Sales Representative, HomeLife Frontier Realty Inc., Brokerage, at 416-721-3316 or smendelev777@gmail.com for a free home evaluation or a private consultation.
Statistics courtesy of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. Content provided by Mission Response Inc. The information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed and it is not legal, financial or professional advice. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.
